North Korea crisis: North in another 'failed' missile launch

Breaking News: North Korea crisis: North in another 'failed' missile launch.

North Korea has test-fired another ballistic missile, South Korean and US military officials say.

The missile exploded shortly after take-off, they said - the second failed launch in the past fortnight.

US President Donald Trump accused North Korea of showing "disrespect" towards China and its president.

The missile was fired from a site in South Pyeongan province, north of Pyongyang, in the early hours of Saturday local time, South Korea said.

It came just hours after the United Nations Security Council discussed North Korea's missile program.

Mr Trump tweeted: "North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!"

Mr Trump recently hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping and praised him for "trying very hard" on North Korea.

Trump fears 'major major' conflict with North Korea

North Korea crisis: Why now?

How mixed signals could spell disaster

North Korea's missile program

Tensions in the region have increased lately, with both North and South Korea conducting military exercises.

North Korea is believed to be continuing efforts to miniaturize nuclear warheads and fit them on long-range missiles capable of reaching the US.

It is not known what kind of missile was unsuccessfully launched on Saturday, however, one official told Reuters it was probably a medium-range missile known as a KN-17.

The land-based, anti-ship ballistic missile has already had two failures, but its message is that US, South Korean and Japanese ships should beware.

Meanwhile, an American aircraft carrier - the USS Carl Vinson - has reportedly arrived in the region after it was sent to the Korean peninsula as part of Mr Trump's "armada".

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JSC) said in a statement that the "unidentified missile" was fired "from a site in the vicinity of Bukchang in Pyeongannam-do (South Pyeongan Province)" early on Saturday.

Commander Dave Benham, a spokesman for US Pacific Command, also said the launch had occurred near the Bukchang airfield.

He added that the missile did not leave North Korean territory.

'A clear challenge'

After Saturday's failed launch, the Japanese government condemned the test and said it had lodged a strong protest with North Korea through its diplomatic channels.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is currently in London, said it was a "clear challenge against the international community".

He added: "Since it is fully conceivable that there'll be possibility for further provocation, we'd like to maintain a close co-ordination with the United States, our ally, to maintain a high status of alert. We'd like to be watertight to ensure safety for our citizens."

Hours earlier, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had called on the rest of the world to help force North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions.

Mr Tillerson warned of "catastrophic consequences" if the Council did not act, saying it was "likely only a matter of time before North Korea develops the capability to strike the US mainland".

The US would use military force if necessary, he said.

Mr Tillerson accused Council members of not fully enforcing existing sanctions against the North, and called on China in particular to use its trade links as influence.

But Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the key to solving the problem did not lie with his country.

How else has tension risen?

Among other developments in recent weeks:

North Korea carried out an earlier failed missile launch and held a massive military parade in an apparent show of strength

The US deployed a group of warships and a submarine to the region

Pyongyang reacted angrily, threatening a "super-mighty pre-emptive strike"

The US began installing a controversial $1bn (£775m) anti-missile system called Thread in South Korea - which Mr Trump said South Korea should pay for. Seoul said on Friday there was "no change" in its position that the US would pay for it

Mr Tillerson and US Vice President Mike Pence visited South Korea, reiterating that "all options were on the table" in dealing with the North

More Details:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39750240

North Korea marks anniversary with massive artillery drill

Breaking News: North Korea marks the anniversary with massive artillery drill.

North Korea's military staged a "large-scale artillery drill" in the country's east Tuesday to mark the founding of the country's army.

A statement from the South Korean military said the live-fire exercises were underway in the Wonsan region on Tuesday afternoon but gave no details on what kinds of weapons and military units took part in the drill.

"Our military is closely monitoring the North Korean military's movements and remains firmly prepared," the statement from the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff says.

North Korea's drills coincided with military exercises held by US and South Korean navies in the Yellow Sea, off the western coast of the Korean Peninsula.

Earlier Tuesday, a US submarine made a port call in South Korea in what US officials said was a show of force amid mounting tensions in the region.

The drills were held as the country commemorated the 85th anniversary of the founding of North Korean army, a significant date in the country's calendar.

A CNN team in North Korea said citizens in the streets of Pyongyang were celebrating Armed Forces Day, with no visible signs of tension.

In a statement after the artillery drills were confirmed, the South Korean President's Office said an emergency meeting had been held to discuss the situation.

Separately, envoys from South Korea, Japan, and the US have been meeting in Tokyo to discuss North Korea's refusal to abandon its nuclear program.

Message to Seoul?

Alex Neill, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Asia, told CNN the artillery drill was likely to be a message to Seoul.

"It's important for the DPRK to remind the South that very large swathes of the South Korean population are within artillery range of the North," he said, using the official name for North Korea.

"So it is a sign that if the North is provoked or there is preemptive action, then a lot of Seoul and its suburbs would be within artillery range of the North."

Neill said nuclear and chemical weapons could also be delivered via artillery strikes.

"As (North Korea has) one of the largest stockpiles of chemical weapons, again artillery can be used for that. Sarin gas doesn't have to be dropped," he said.

Trump: North Korea is 'a real threat'

Relations between North Korea and the US and South Korea have deteriorated in recent months, as the rhetoric and military posturing on both sides has increased.

Fears have mounted in recent weeks that North Korea could soon conduct a sixth nuclear test or another missile launch.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said the status quo with nuclear-armed North Korea was unacceptable, calling for new sanctions on the country.

"This is a real threat to the world, whether we want to talk about it or not," Trump said at a lunch for ambassadors of countries who sit on the Security Council.

"North Korea's a big world problem, and it's a problem we have to finally solve. People put blindfolds on for decades and now it's time to solve the problem."

The Trump administration has taken the unusual step of calling the entire US Senate to a meeting at the White House, for a briefing on North Korea with the US secretaries of Defense and State.

Some analysts voiced concerns Trump was backing himself into a corner with his fierce rhetoric on North Korea, leading both countries to a point where "bad things are going to happen."

USS Vinson deployed as tensions build

Earlier this month, the Trump administration announced it would be sending the USS Vinson, an aircraft carrier, to the Korean Peninsula after US officials said they anticipated a fresh round of nuclear tests and missile launches.

Its deployment was met with threats by the North Koreans.

State-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun said over the weekend in an editorial the country could sink a "nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with a single strike."

North Korea held an enormous military parade held to celebrate the anniversary of the birth of the country's founder, Kim Il Sung on April 15.

Prior to the celebrations, satellite images had shown the rogue state could be preparing for another nuclear test.

In the end, no nuclear test was held that day, but a performance on the Day of the Sun still showed a propaganda video where missiles struck the United States and a US flag was left in flames.

Timeline of administration's statements shows confusion about location of US aircraft carrier.

Breaking News: Timeline of administration's statements shows confusion about location of US aircraft carrier

ABC News:

The White House today tried to clarify a series of confusing and possibly misleading statements about the location of a nuclear-capable aircraft carrier it initially said was headed north to the Korean Peninsula in the face of recent military provocations by North Korea.

The USS Carl Vinson was actually headed south from Singapore to participate in a four-day military exercise with the Australian Navy that only ended Tuesday. The carrier group is not expected in the Sea of Japan until the end of the month.

"Well, I mean I -- PACOM [U.S. Pacific Command] put out a release talking about the group ultimately ending up in the Korean peninsula. That's what it will do," White House spokesman Sean Spicer said at a press briefing this afternoon.

President Trump said in an interview last week that "we are sending an armada."

When asked whether the president may have spoken too quickly on the ship’s whereabouts before it actually headed north, Spicer replied, "The president said we'd have an armada going towards the peninsula. That's a fact. It happened. It is happening, rather."

But last week multiple senior administration officials indicated it was happening then, not now.

Spicer referred reporters to PACOM and the Department of Defense for details on the timing of the carrier group's arrival to the Korean Peninsula.

Here is a breakdown on how U.S. military and administration officials’ statements about the Vinson contributed to the confusion.

April 8

U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) issued a statement on behalf of the Third Fleet that Admiral Harry Harris had "directed the Carl Vinson Strike Group to sail north and report on station in the Western Pacific Ocean after departing Singapore April 8."

The statement said that the Vinson would head north "rather than executing previously planned port visits to Australia."

It made no mention of the Sea of Japan or North Korea, though a U.S. official told ABC News that the intended redirection of the Vincent was to the Sea of Japan east of the Korean Peninsula.

The decision to change the course of the Vinson rested with Admiral Harris, who commands PACOM.

April 9

National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster was asked why the Vinson strike group was moving to the Korean Peninsula.

"Well, it's prudent to do it, isn't it?" McMaster told Fox News Sunday. "I mean, North Korea has been engaged in a pattern of provocative behavior. This is -- this is a rogue regime that is now a nuclear-capable regime, and President Xi and President Trump agreed that that is unacceptable, that what must happen is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. And so, the president has asked to be prepared to give him a full range of options to remove that threat the American people and to our allies and partners in the region."

April 11

Tensions continued to escalate between North Korea and the Trump administration. The president tweeted early in the morning that North Korea was "looking for trouble."

"If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them!" the tweet read.

Later that day, White House press secretary Sean Spicer seemed to acknowledge the Vinson was headed to the Sea of Japan, saying, “The forward deployment is deterrence, presence. It’s prudent. But it does a lot of things. It ensures our -- we have the strategic capabilities, and it gives the President options in the region.”

Asked specifically about the Sea of Japan, Spicer said, “I think when you see a carrier group steaming into an area like that, the forward presence of that is clearly, through almost every instance, a huge deterrence. So I think it serves multiple capabilities.”

Then-Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters during a Pentagon news conference that the Vinson was “on her way up there because that's where we thought it was most prudent to have her at this time.” He added that the ship's role in an Australian exercise had been canceled.

     Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis speaks during a news conference at the Pentagon, April 11, 2017.

It would later be revealed that the ship did participate in those exercises with the Australian Navy. The Pentagon issued a correction to the transcript one week later, on April 18, saying the ship's port visit to Fremantle, Australia, was canceled but the exercises proceeded as planned.

At the time, however, Mattis gave the impression that the Vinson strike group was on its way to the Korean Peninsula.

April 12

In an interview with Fox Business Network, President Trump says the United States is "sending an armada" after a question about North Korea.

“We are sending an armada, very powerful. We have submarines, very powerful, far more powerful than the aircraft carrier," he said.

Later that day, U.S. Pacific Command tweeted photos of the USS Carl Vinson "on patrol in the Western Pacific, ready for any contingency." It was heading south from Singapore through Indonesia for exercises with the Australian military that were set to begin on April 15.

April 14

North Korea holds a big military parade in Pyongyang to mark the 105th birthday of the country's founder, Kim Il Sung. The parade featured intercontinental ballistic missiles and previously unseen canisters that could hold a long-range missile.

April 15

The Vinson transited south through the Sunda Strait in Indonesia, thousands of nautical miles from the Sea of Japan. The U.S. Navy released a photo of the transit two days later.

The Vinson participated in exercises with the Australian Navy off the coast of northwestern Australia. It has not yet left for the Sea of Japan.

Early Saturday evening Eastern Standard Time, North Korea conducted a failed ballistic missile test. The missile exploded immediately after liftoff.

April 17

Vice President Mike Pence, who landed in Seoul on Sunday, told CNN that "North Korea would do well not to test his resolve or the strength of the armed forces of the United States in this region."

Pence cited the "Mother of all Bombs" dropped in Afghanistan days prior, even though that bomb was not intended by the White House to send a message to North Korea.

The decision to drop the bomb on ISIS fighters was made by commanders in Afghanistan.

April 18

U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) announced that the Vinson was heading to the Western Pacific, as ordered.

“The USS Carl Vinson Strike Group is proceeding to the Western Pacific as ordered," the news release said. "After departing Singapore on April 8 and canceling a scheduled port visit to Perth, the Strike Group was able to complete a curtailed period of previously scheduled training with Australia in international waters off the northwest coast of Australia. The Carl Vinson Strike Group is heading north to the Western Pacific as a prudent measure.”

The location of the "Western Pacific" did little to clear up the Vinson's location because PACOM had tweeted six days earlier that the Vinson was "on patrol in the Western Pacific."

April 19

Vice President Pence was asked about whether the military and administration's comments regarding the Vinson's location were deliberately misleading.

"Oh, I think not," he said. "We have an extraordinary commitment of U.S. Forces in the region. The 'Carl Vinson' and that battle group are be deployed to the Sea of Japan and will likely arrive here in the coming weeks."

Defense Secretary Mattis was also asked to clear up the confusion about the Vinson's redirection. Mattis, talking to reporters from Saudi Arabia, said the ship is "doing exactly what we said."

"The bottom line is in our effort to always be open about what we’re doing, we said that we were going to change the Vinson’s upcoming schedule," Mattis said. "The Vinson, as I’ve said on the record, was operating up and down the Western Pacific. And were doing exactly what we said. And that is we are shifting her, instead of continuing her in one direction, as she pulled out of Singapore she’s is going to continue part of her cruise down in that region. But she was on her way up to Korea.

"We don’t generally give out ship schedules in advance but I didn’t want to play a game either and say we’re not changing a schedule when in fact we had," Mattis continued.

The Carl Vinson's own Facebook page posted today that the seven-month deployment of the ship had been extended by 30 days for "persistent presence in the waters off the Korean Peninsula."

News Reference:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/timeline-administrations-statements-shows-confusion-location-us-aircraft/story?id=46888209

Breaking News: 

What's at stake in North Korea?

    Apr 17, 2017, 2:57 PM ET

North Korea test missiles, challenges US with nuclear war threats

North Korea’s failed missile test this weekend is just the latest in a string of tests by the country that has stoked fears around the world.

There had been growing concern all week that Kim Jong Un’s government would attempt some form of missile or nuclear test this weekend as it celebrated the 105th birthday of its late founder, Kim Il Sung. So while the missile test did not come as a grand surprise, it serves a reminder of the growing threat that North Korea poses to U.S. interests in East Asia and the possible threat that it could pose to the U.S. homeland in the not-too-distant future.

North Korea’s attempted missile launch fails, US officials say

North Korea vows further missile tests: Report

Here’s what you need to know:

Ballistic abilities

At the moment, North Korea doesn’t have the ability to hit the U.S. mainland with its missiles. However, according to data provided by Michael Elleman, a senior fellow for missile defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British research institute, North Korea is developing a missile known as the Musudan (or Hwasong-10), with a range of up to 3,200 kilometers (nearly 2,000 miles).

That puts the Musudan within striking range of Guam, a U.S. island territory in the western Pacific that is home to more than 150,000 U.S. citizens, as well as a number of U.S. military bases.

In addition, North Korea is developing other missiles with even greater ranges. Among those are the KN-08 (or Hwasong-13) and KN-14 (or Hwasong-14), both of which are believed to be intercontinental ballistic missiles. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank based in Washington, D.C., the missiles have maximum ranges of 11,500 kilometers (approximately 7,145 miles) and 10,000 kilometers (approximately 6,215 miles) respectively — within striking distance of the U.S. mainland.

For a missile to be considered an ICBM, it must be able to travel a minimum of 3,400 miles (about 5,500 kilometers).

But experts have cast doubt on how ready the country is to launch such missiles.

“ICBMs that are reliable are at least four years away and more likely five to seven,” Elleman told ABC News.

Robert Kelly, an associate professor of political science at Pusan University in South Korea, pointed out that while Hawaii and Guam are closer targets that might not require an ICBM for targeting, he is “very doubtful North Korea missile guidance systems are good enough to get a ... missile to such a precise location,” he wrote in an email to ABC News.

Nuclear ambitions

Missiles are just one piece of the puzzle. North Korea’s nuclear program is also a concern for the international community.

North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests since 2006, two of them last year.

While the nuclear program is separate from the missile tests, “the real issue is whether they could put a nuke on top of that missile. That is just unknown,” said Kelly. “If I had to speculate, I would say yes, that they could nuke Japan but, no, they could not reach Hawaii or [the U.S. mainland] yet.”

“Nuclear experts believe the North to have 12 to 20 bombs and [will] expand its nuclear arsenal to 40 or 50 in the next four to five years,” Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor of Korean studies at Tufts University, told ABC News in an email. “That would rival the size of the United Kingdom’s nuclear arsenal.”

Firepower at this scale would “give North Korea credible second strike capability. That is, the North attacks first, the U.S. shoots back, and the North shoots back — a series of nuclear exchanges, in a mutual destruction,” Lee added.

What is the worst-case scenario?

“The worst-case scenario is open warfare between the two Koreas into which China and the U.S. would get dragged on opposite sides and in which nuclear weapons were used,” said Kelly, adding that he thinks this is unlikely.

But if it does happen, “China has never confirmed what its status would be if war [broke] out again, and we’d like to think China would be on our side, but they’ve so far refused to agree to that position,” said Van Jackson, an associate professor at the College of Security Studies at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.

But how could the U.S. get dragged into a conflict so far away? “The American alliance arrangement with South Korea and Japan would require American involvement in the case of war, much like America’s Cold War commitment to NATO,” Kelly said.

Vice President Mike Pence speaks during an Easter fellowship dinner at a military base in Seoul, South Korea, April 16, 2017.more +

The defense of South Korea is something that the U.S. continues to guarantee.

“Our commitment to this historic alliance with the courageous people of South Korea has never been stronger,” Pence said on Sunday while visiting U.S. troops stationed in the country.

Jackson explained that the most likely way the U.S. would be dragged into the conflict would be “a North Korean first strike against either South Korea or the U.S. or a U.S. preventive attack on North Korea that leads to North Korean retaliation that then escalates.”

attack on North Korea that leads to North Korean retaliation that then escalates.”

But even the tests pose a threat, according to professor Victor Cha, the director of Asian studies at Georgetown University.

“A failed missile test that hit Japan could spark calls for retaliation,” he told ABC News, and that could see the U.S. become involved.

Beyond conflict, the development of nuclear weapons in North Korea could cause other problems.

“A collapse of the regime could spark a loose-nukes crisis and/or proliferation of weapons to nonstate actors,” said Cha. In other words, terrorist groups could take advantage of the situation to get their hands on nuclear materials.

Further development of nuclear weapons in North Korea could encourage other countries — even ones friendly with the U.S. — to develop their own nuclear weapons.

“The moment we acknowledge North Korean nuclear weapons, the global taboo against nuclear weapons becomes violated, no longer sacrosanct,” said Jackson. “Practically speaking, South Korea will eventually go nuclear itself, which in turn will place tremendous pressures on Japan and Taiwan to do so as well.”

What options does President Donald Trump have?

Putting it bluntly, Jackson said, “The United States has no good options.”

The U.S. could launch a strike on North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, but that is “very difficult and fraught with risk” and could lead to conflict, he added.

“A military strike is a dangerous option, given that North Korean artillery stands only seconds away from Seoul, where 10 million people live and 100,000 American expats and 27,500 U.S. troops,” said Cha.

The U.S. could temper its desire to see North Korea denuclearize in an attempt to get a deal with North Korea that modestly stabilizes relations in the region, Jackson said.

But “this has historically been unacceptable to South Korea and to most U.S. policy officials,” he explained.

Lee said that the U.S.’s best course of action is “to put unrelenting financial pressure” on the regime that would exclude it from the U.S. dollar system, the backbone of the global financial system.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un is pictured inspecting the "Dropping and Target-striking Contest of KPA Special Operation Forces - 2017" at an undisclosed location in North Korea, in this undated photo released April 14, 2017.more +

But according to Kelly, China “has mixed feelings about really cutting North Korea off from the global economy.”

“If North Korea were to dramatically implode, most analysts expect a wave of refugees headed toward China,” South Korea or even Japan, explained Kelly.

Jackson agreed that refugees were a concern, saying, “This is one of China’s long-standing concerns that has incentivized it to urge caution and restraint in Korea.”

The refugee flow could be “on the same scale as Syria but perhaps with even greater desperation,” he added.

‘No joke’

“North Korea is no joke. With its bizarre cult of personality and backwardness, the world tends to laugh at Pyongyang,” said Lee.

“The leadership is not crazy or suicidal, hence an imminent war is unlikely,” Lee continued. “But North Korea is a revisionist state — that is, a state that is willing to take risks to change the international environment in its favor.”

ABC News’ Luis Martinez contributed to this report from the Pentagon.